INTELLIGENCE UNIT

For a Swedish company looking to invest in Ukraine, the macro picture can be summarised as high demand, fast-moving reform, and elevated operational risk, with de-risking and co-financing increasingly determining what is actually investable.

Reconstruction needs are vast and long-term. The joint RDNA4 (Government of Ukraine, World Bank Group, European Commission, UN) estimates total recovery and reconstruction needs at around $524 billion over the next decade, with the largest needs in housing, transport and energy. This translates into opportunities well beyond mega-projects—across equipment, engineering, materials, digital systems, logistics, maintenance and resilient supply chains.

Energy resilience is the key constraint—and therefore a prime opportunity. Continued attacks on energy infrastructure make operational continuity decisive for every sector, increasing demand for decentralised generation, efficiency, backup solutions, storage and rapid repair capability.

International financing is substantial, especially to keep the private sector operating. In 2025, the EBRD deployed a record €2.9 billion in Ukraine (€9.1 billion since 2022), with over €1.2 billion focused on energy security and 57% of investments going to the private sector—signalling where bankable pipelines and co-financing are most likely to form.

Bottom line: the most investable deals are structured and compliance-ready. Swedish firms that position their offer around resilience outcomes, work via trusted financiers and partners, and build for disruption (strong compliance, redundancy, local delivery capacity) are best placed to convert demand into bankable projects.

Full analysis available here: (also available as PDF).